AGLI BARI, ATAL BIHARI
TEESRI BARI, ATAL BIHARI
By S.P. Attri (USA)
1. At this time, the Ace-Icon of BJP, Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee (ABV),
is the most sought-after leader amongst the BJP types. His
popularity results from the acceptance of a reality that ABV is
the biggest vote-catcher for the BJP party. Phrases like Vajpayee
Approach and Vajpayee Touch are floating around and are fast
catching on amongst the BJP Bunch. Using Vajpayee as its trump
card, the BJP hopes to reap the dividends of moving from the
fringe to the mainstream of politics.
2. A fierce individualist by temperament, Vajpayee belongs to the
erstwhile Jan Sangh party (Founded by the Keysri Hindu, Dr. Shyama
Prasad Mukherji), has a strong background in RSS, is one of the
most accomplished parliamentarians, and is a tremendous diplomat.
Without doubt, he is the man of the moment, has the looks of a
Winner, and has taken his party well beyond the incremental votes
his leadership used to attract. Because ABV has become the
BJP's trump card, it is he who dominates the BJP agenda. The BJP,
which treated the early months of his prime ministership with some
misgivings, now regards ABV as the gung ho. "This election is
to formalise the continuity of Atalji," says Atul Bhatkalkar,
secretary of the Maharashtra BJP. "He will be the main focus
of our campaign," asserts Gauri Shankar Shejwar, leader of
the Opposition in Madhya Pradesh. The alliance partners are
equally enthused. Even in Tamil Nadu where the BJP's presence is
nominal, Vajpayee is regarded a vote-catcher. And over in West
Bengal, where the BJP was once regarded as a Marwari outfit,
Mamata Banerjee has now announced her willingness to join a Future
Vajpayee government.
3. Vajpayee, it would seem, has taken the BJP well beyond the
incremental votes that Advani hoped his leadership would attract.
To begin with, he has conclusively destroyed the BJP's pariah
status in less than three years after his first government fell in
just 13 days. Today, Janata Dal leaders like J.H. Patel, Sharad
Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan are knocking at the door of the BJP-led
National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Dravidian nationalists like M.
Karunanidhi and Vaiko are loyal alliance partners. The BJP hasn't
even had to play the "Italian Card" aggressively.
"We just have to ask the people whether the country is safer
in the hands of Atalji or Sonia," says Rajendrasinh Rana,
president of the Gujarat BJP.
In matters of economic policy, the Vajpayee government has pursued
its middle-class support base and has kept its swadeshi ideologues
at arms length. Contrary to the fears expressed at the time of the
attacks on Christians in Gujarat and Orissa last year, the BJP-led
government really has not compromised Indian secularism and has
kept Ayodhya on the back burner. Other than Dr. Murli Manohar
Joshi, no other BJP minister has pursued saffron agendas. To top
its agenda list, the BJP has decided to fight the on-coming
election with its allies on a common manifesto and has put this
item on the top shelf.
4. BJP today is no longer a party of the Hindi heartland nor is it
a party of the upper-castes only, it is represented among all
communities, even amongst some Muslims. Has this expansion been at
the cost of the party's Famed Hindu Distinctiveness? Has the BJP
stooped to conquer and changed its tactics? It is difficult to
come out with a simple answer to address these questions. It
is quite possible, however, that political expediency has tempered
BJP's political ideology.
However, there is one area in which BJP is steadfast and unique
and that is the realm of national security. Here again,
ironically, the main initiator of this political approach has been
the so-called "Moderate Vajpayee." Beginning from the
nuclear tests, on up through Agni II test, and culminating in the
decision to order air strikes against Pakistani intruders in
Kargil, Prime Minister ABV has systematically and steadfastly
pursued the goal of a strong India. Today, that is what
distinguishes the BJP from other parties in India.
But there is no denying a difference that exists between the BJP
that rode the "Ram Wave" in 1991 and the BJP that is
today that is readying itself now for Vajpayee's Third Coronation
(Teesri Bari). Expediency, it would seem, has tempered its
ideology. From the fringe, the BJP has now moved on into the
mainstream. BJP is hoping to reap the dividends of that
transition, using ABV as its trump card. Once described as a Mask
of the BJP, Vajpayee's popularity today has made him bigger than
the BJP party itself.
5. In the past, Vajpayee has been referred to as the poet and the
politician. But ABV is much more. A man blessed with the ability
to laugh at himself, Atal Bihari Vajpayee has often made
self-deprecating jokes about the chant "Agli Bari Atal Bihari".
As he chuckles at this chant, his supporters respond with a
slightly changed chant "Teesri Bari Atal Bihari".
Americans are fond of saying that "Third time is the
Charm." Let us find out if that is really so and which way
the political wind blows this time around in India.
It would seem from his confidence that prime minister ABV must
know that he's been touched by the hand of history. No longer a
13-day wonder boy first time around, Vajpayee now is emerging as
one of the most popular non-Congress leaders of independent India.
As his post-Kargil popularity touches dizzying heights, the drift
and drill of his early months in office have been transformed into
confidence, conviction, and credence.
6. One of the characteristics of ABV that is unique is that he
rarely loses his cool, practically never puts his foot in his
mouth (i.e. never becomes a Dent-O-Pedologist) and nearly always
sounds believable. As an example of this credibility, we can
recall that at the time of Pokhran II tests, George Fernandes
"played the China Card" and described China as the
biggest threat to India's Security. The reaction of the West in
general to this representation, was that of dis-belief and
untrustworthy arrogance, an attempt to justify aggressive
militarism. But when Vajpayee, in his letter to President Clinton,
immediately after Pokhran II tests, "played exact same China
Card," but in slightly different words, everybody in
the West believed it, and concluded that India's Security concerns
with respect to China are genuine and that China has indeed been a
bully and threat to its neighbors. It is said that Vajpayee weaves
a spell with words. But what we have witnessed in this and
other examples, is not merely a matter of ABV's diplomatic spell
and style but diplomatic results. Vajpayee does not sell dreams,
he sells hard reality.
Recently, when in the course of Kargil Operations, George
Fernandes flubbed his dub, by issuing a couple of unseemely and
politically unsupportable statements, ABV quietly advised him to
keep his big mouth shut and George, by and large, has done just
that.
7. The man who seems to have learned, in the greatest quantity,
from ABV's tutelage is External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh.
During the recent visit of NaPaki Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz to
India, ABV gave him a sharp tongue-lashing. Aziz tried to
interrupt ABV a few times but ABV advised him (with finger
gestures) not to interrupt him and told Aziz flat-out that he (ABV)
took the bus of peace to Lahore but that you guys (NaPakistnis)
re-routed the bus to Kargil with only one reasonable conclusion
which is that you guys (NaPakistanis) cannot be trusted.
Sartaj Aziz came dressed in a business suit, with suit, boot, and
a tie. Jaswant Singh, taking the cue from his boss's approach,
when appearing in a combined news conference with Aziz, came into
public view with the oldest shirt, pajama, and bed-room chappals
and kept his hands entirely behind his back, totally avoiding any
hand-shake with Aziz. In full public view, Jaswant Singh boldly
conveyed to Aziz what he thought of Aziz and of his shoddy
diplomatic deception and charlatan charade. Jaswant Singh is
indeed a fast learner.
Right after the Pokhran II tests, India's diplomatic capital took
a nose dive and the entire West, including Australlia, New
Zealand, plus China and Japan delivered scathing attacks on India.
Since then, Jaswant Singh has engaged in a series of diplomatic
conferences with US's Strobe Talbot and has successfully kept him
at bay. Even Madam Madeline Albright who, right after Pokhran II
tests, described India as digging a hole for itself, from which it
has to pull itself out, now wants to be seen on the right
side of India's diplomatic position. Jaswant Singh, went to
China and successfully negotiated with the Chinese, as a result of
which the Chinese refused to support their long-time friend
NaPakistan in the Kargil Tangle and un-equivocally called
NaPakistan to withdraw its troops from Kargil. According to the
political practices of the past, both the US and China would
normally have called upon both India and NaPakistan for a quick
cease-fire right inside the Kargil mountains. But this time
around, both the US and the Chinese acted totally differently,
both of them un-equivocally called upon NaPakistan to withdraw its
troops from Kargil. This political alteration is a water-shed in
our diplomatic success and both Vajpayee and Jaswant Singh deserve
much credit for this phenomenal diplomatic victory, a success that
has eluded us for over fifty years.
It is more than likely that Jaswant Singh's future visit lists
would include the nations of Japan, Australlia, and New Zealand
also soon. If that happens, diplomatic successes of a similar kind
are, more likely than not, to occur with these three nations also.
8. Vajpayee has been getting up in years but his co-ordinating
abilities have not diminished. ABV seems to have an innate ability
to forge consensus and possesses an instinctive knack of
formulating approaches that have the widest acceptability. These
qualities are invaluable in working with a coalition. ABV is
basically a team-player and this approach works great most of the
time but his tolerance of laggards, due to his lack of adequate
assertiveness, once in a while lands him in some sticky
situations. Vajpayee is known for delegating responsibility and
despite his unchallanged status, has conceded maximum functional
autonomy to his team.
Vajpayee is said to lack combativeness and though he gave
NaPakistan a thrashing but ABV prefers the line of least
resistance in difficult situations and he loves being the nice
guy. He is basically a diplomat and is good at his subject. What
we are seeing under ABV are "The Changing Hues of
Saffron" for BJP.
Subsequent to Kargil, ABV has become known as the triumphant
leader of a victorious nation and knows that he no longer needs
gimmicks to win adulation. He is riding the crest of Kargil
victory and like Ronald Reagan of the US, has become teflon-coated.
He has been heading a caretaker government for the longest period
in India's history. He decided to continue as if he were heading a
normal government. A less popular leader may have invited public
displeasure for transgressing the line of constitutional propriety
but Vajpayee could get away with it. In fact, as the public
sympathy over losing a government by one vote changed to public
euphoria over the diplomatic and military victories over Pakistan,
ABV knew he could even afford to ignore suggestions of restraint
from Rashtrapati Bhavan.
Everybody now is saying "Vajpayee steered us to diplomatic
and military victory" and because of this, he has acquired a
larger than life image, and respect has turned to reverence. This
tranmutation of public perception is really incredible. In
addition, a few other things seem to be going for ABV concurrently
and Fate does appear to be benevolent to and smiling upon Vajpayee.
There are visible signs of an economic revival. Inflation is at an
all-time low, foodgrain production and foreign-exchange reserves
are looking healthy and the Sensex is soaring. Because of this
solid line of explicit positives, Finance Minister Yashwant
Sinha's disastrous first budget is now a bad memory. Industry's
suspicions about BJP's Swadeshi Policies have also been put to
rest and the Business Community is now praising the BJP economics.
9. Years of experience have given ABV a great sense of timing and
instinct. "He knew when to say no to Clinton's invitation,
when to say yes to a phone call from Sharif. He needed no
advisers," says a key PMO aide.
A keen instinct for doing the right thing at the right time means
that Vajpayee often has to pull up the radicals in his party. He
knows that Kargil has worked to his benefit but also knows that
openly exploiting it could rebound. A controversial proposal
apparently made by Mahajan that the BJP celebrate August 15 as
Vijay Divas was shot down. Economy with words means that Vajpayee
rarely puts his foot in his mouth. And he does not hesitate to
pull up his cabinet colleagues when they do: George Fernandes has
often been told to shut up and even L.K. Advani's statements have
been questioned. Says a close adviser: "This time round,
Atalji will not fight the elections as a BJP leader. He will fight
as a national leader." In an ideological party like the BJP
this is a big change. Purists in the Sangh Parivar are not
comfortable with this change. But prudence demands that they toe
the moderate line for the moment. The BJP's second-rung leadership
has not really come of age and only Vajpayee can carry the party's
disparate allies with him.
10. What is the biggest problem of BJP in the on-coming election?
The BJP's biggest problem in this general election could be the
fact that it has already peaked, there is some evidence that the
party has peaked in many areas. The underlying political trend of
the decade of nineties seems to be for the traditional political
parties to either splinter or lose ground to regional formations.
Defying this general trend, however, the BJP party has been
growing steadily. From 86 Lok Sabha seats and 11.5 per cent of the
vote share in 1989, the party today has the largest bloc of 182
seats and 25.59 per cent of the vote share.
In each next general election since 1989 the party has added
anything from 20 to 40 Lok Sabha seats to its tally. In doing so,
the BJP has defied conventional wisdom by stretching its social
umbrella way beyond the Bania-Brahmin core to include the lower
castes. In geographical terms too the party's spread has been
impressive: it has opened its account in the east and is actually
a contender for power in one of the southern states. Little wonder
the party, once shunned as untouchable, today has a row of leaders
knocking on its door.
11. What does the BJP need to do? BJP must learn the tricks of
elections and learn fast how to wheel and deal to win elections.
Dissidence and factionalism take their toll in every state unit of
the party. There are a hundred seats where in 1998, BJP's victory-
margin was less than 10% and there are 80 more seats where the
BJP's loss-margin was less than 10%. BJP must target these seats
and carry on an aggressive campaign to win back a majority of
these seats. The BJP must aim for an outright majority for its
National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
BJP also must attempt to divide the opposition. The strength of
Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party and making sure that
Congress and BSP don't team up, would help BJP's political
strength and keep its tally intact. For its own survival sake, the
BJP has to keep a third front alive.
BJP does have some areas of strength. There are some advantages in
being a cadre-driven party. Most of the 40,000 RSS shakhas and one
million active Sangh Parivar members work for the BJP candidates
in their areas.
The BJP can push some popular concepts as part of its election
strategy. It can liberalise foreign investments further and step
up its public-sector disinvestment. It can offer protection to
indigenous industry while maintaining the importance of the public
sector. It can keep up the pressure on NaPakistan using the US, it
can also keep the military heat on NaPakistan but under no
circumstances must it permit US mediation. It can temporarily
accept Line of Control (LOC) as the International Border with
NaPakistan but absolutely, under no circumstances, make any
compromise on 1996 Lok Sabha resolution claiming POK. Akhand
Bharat must remain the ultimate goal of BJP.
It can temporarily shelve all contentious issues like Ayodhya and
Uniform Civil Code. BJP must understand clearly and explicitly
that, under the present political circumstances, Hindutva cannot
be introduced into India through the Front Door. Hindutva must be
pushed by BJP smartly and subtly, through the Back Door and under
the cloak of Nationalism. BJP can use official patronage to spread
Hindu Nationalism in education.
BJP needs to organise an army of BJP workers who have the ability
to capture the imagination of an average Indian in the far-flung
areas of the country. It is the army of such smart workers that
would make it possible for BJP to maximise its political
potential. This effort is necessary and is needed inspite of the
fact that Vajpayee is the party's vote-winning mascot.
12. As electioneering gets going, the BJP must make it a Ram-Raj
versus Rome-Raj alternative, by making it a Vajpayee versus
Sonia Gandhi contest. The top BJP brass should refrain from
attacking the Congress president directly and personally, but its
party's field cadres should launch a vigorous scathing attack on
the Gandhi Bahu. Patriotism being on the upsurge due to Kargil,
the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi becomes only too starkly naked.
Hindutva should be down-played but Sonia must be attacked with
abandon.
The thrust of the BJP's electioneering will be to project BJP's
performance and that the BJP can also govern during a crisis. It
would identify itself with the Indian Army at every given
opportunity. The official BJP line is that Kargil must not be
politicised. But the message will be hammered home without being
explicitly stated that Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the BJP are
inextricably linked to the victory in Kargil. Vajpayee and Kargil
will be the twin theme of the BJP campaign. A victorious nation, a
popular leader (ABV), and a patriotic party (BJP) may yet turn out
to be a potent political cocktail for the Election of 1999.
Various leaders of BJP will also hit the campaign trail in their
hired aircraft and helicopters. But this time round the party will
not project a collective leadership but will focus solely on
Vajpayee's personality. They would point out that Sonia
Gandhi and the Congress continue to have a warped perception about
matters of national interest and pride and that they continue to
deny that India has scored a decisive military victory and an
unprecedented diplomatic success. The differences become quite
telling in this comparison. Congress's carping makes the party
come across as unpatriotic dissenters at a time of national
celebration. BJP projects the great victory of the jawans while
the Congres complains about intelligence failure. BJP becomes the
cheerleader whereas the Congress comes off as the complainer, as
the critic. Because Kargil has transformed the national
mood, the BJP will find that it has more takers for its brand of
nationalism this time.
13. BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now should give
serious thought to a well-produced manifesto. It is rumored that a
sleek document is planned. This document will concentrate on
principles of governance and suggest broad policy guidelines
without going into specifics. Defence Minister George Fernandes
and External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh are in charge of the
drafting this document.
Today the BJP party sees itself as part of a joint family where
politics is just one preoccupation. Though Vajpayee's agenda sets
the tone, it does not hijack the RSS or its Sangh Parivar. Never
the first choice of the Sangh Parivar for the top job, prime
minister Vajpayee still is their best bet. Now a national
leader with an appeal that extends far beyond the party, Vajpayee
nevertheless retains a large measure of corporate loyalty to a
family he has faithfully served for nearly half a century. For the
coming Lok Sabha election, he is the BJP's unchallenged leader and
its Most Charismatic Nationalist Icon. ABV has indeed turned out
to be a "Teflon PM," nothing bad seems to stick to
him.The Exclusivist, Hindutva-Driven BJP-RSS core appears to have
grasped this, and has made up its mind that its best tactic at
this time, is to just hang on to Vajpayee’s Coat-Tails.
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